The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice

The objective of this paper is to understand how loan structure affects (i) the borrower's selection of a mortgage contract and (ii) the aggregate economy. We develop a quantitative equilibrium theory of mortgage choice where households can choose from a menu of long-term (nominal) mortgage loans. The model accounts for observed patterns in housing consumption, ownership, and portfolio allocations. We find that the loan structure is a quantitatively significant factor in a household's housing finance decision. The model suggests that the mortgage structure preferred by a household is dependent on age and income and that loan products with low initial payments offer an alternative to mortgages with no downpayment. These effects are more important when inflation is low. The presence of inflation reduces the real value of the mortgage payment and the outstanding loan over time reducing mobility. Changes in the structure of mortgages have implications for risk sharing.     

次贷危机与我国住房信贷风险防范

美国不完善的住房保障体系、宽松的房贷政策以及创新的房贷产品,使市场积累了巨大风险,而利率上升和房市降温引爆了次贷危机.我国住房信贷市场存在类似于次贷危机的风险形成机制.公共住房供需矛盾突出,住房信贷市场准入标准宽松,提供按揭贷款的银行缺乏合理的避险手段,长期内利率波动和住房产权流动性不足,使我国住房信贷市场风险不断积累.防范我国住房信贷风险必须未雨绸缪.     

Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.     

The impact of income,economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China: evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression

The rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in China. This article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income, economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China, based on the panel data of 35 major cities from 2002 to 2012. Compared with previous studies, we can more precisely and reasonably discuss the impact of these variables on different levels of housing prices. The empirical results indicate that the impact of independent variables on housing prices is heterogeneous across quantiles. Specifically, the impact of income is positive and significant across quantiles, and the impact becomes greater at the 90th and 95th quantiles. Economic openness has a positive and significant effect at the 5th–80th quantiles, which support the Balassa–Samuelson effect, but it is insignificant at the 90th and 95th quantiles. The impact of interest rates is positive and significant at low quantiles, but the impact is negative and insignificant at high quantiles. Furthermore, we also find that the coefficients of interest rates at various quantiles are smaller. In addition, the population has a significant positive effect across quantiles. Finally, we provide important policy implications.     

住房反向抵押贷款保险中的主要风险因素分析及其应对措施

由保险公司开展住房反向抵押贷款保险是住房反向抵押贷款的一个主要方式。本文试图通过分析实施住房反向抵押贷款保险中保险公司面临的主要风险因素,包括利率风险、预期寿命风险、房产价值评估风险和道德风险,找出保险公司控制或降低这些风险因素的途径,为住房反向抵把贷款保险在我国的发展提供一些借鉴。     

"热钱"对我国资产价格影响的实证研究

按通常研究思路,要研究热钱对资产价格的影响,首先要计算热钱数量。但是要较为准确地计算出热钱数量绝非易事。抓住我国外汇管理制度特点和热钱的逐利性这两点能巧妙地绕过计算热钱数量这一难题。通过对2002年1月至2009年9月的月度统计数据进行实证检验发现,流入我国境内的热钱主要是流入了房市而不是股市,并推动了房价的上涨;房价的上涨会进一步吸引热钱流入。     

The spatial demand for housing with uncertain quality

This article extends the models of household location and the spatial housing market to examine the impact of uncertain housing quality on the demands for housing and location and the spatial characteristics of the housing price and consumption gradients. The well-known basic predictions of the certainty models remain qualitatively unaltered: equilibrium housing price is still decreasing convex, and (planned) housing consumption increases with commuting distance. Quality risk by itself, though, is seen to reduce the demand for housing and increase the demand for CBD proximity in the location choice model and decrease the equilibrium housing price at all locations in the competitive spatial housing market. The effect of quality risk on the consumption gradient comprises two offsetting effects arising from the increase in risk and the decrease in equilibrium housing price.     

Optimal fiscal zoning that distorts housing consumption

When entrants to Tiebout-type communities face limited alternatives, local governments possess some monopoly power over the use of land within their boundaries. One way they exercise that power is through fiscal zoning which attempts to extract tax revenues from newcomers in excess of the cost of the local services they consume. Ideally, the community would like to do this by regulating the newcomers' tax bases, but in practice this is impossible. Thus, indirect methods such as minimum lot size zoning are necesary. Since it is not possible to control all inputs into the production of housing, however, zoning is distortionary. This article examines the impact of the distortions of minimum lot size zoning on the ability of local governments to implement fiscal zoning.     

Residential property values in a multinodal urban area: New evidence on the implicit price of location

The monocentric model predicts a housing price gradient from the central business district, and it follows that the extension of this model to account for modern multinodal metropolitan areas would predict housing price gradients from multiple employment centers. Empirical analysis using hedonic regression techniques for the estimation of price gradients in a multinodal context is limited. This study extends prior work by exploring nonlinear housing price gradients in a multinodal urban area with an unusually robust database of housing sales transactions, and using a geographic information system for spatial analysis. The results confirm the importance of non-CBD employment centers, a strong if asymmetric CBD price gradient, and significant nonlinear gradients from such other urban amenities as major retail sites and highways.     

地价对房价影响程度区域差异的实证分析——来自国土资源部楼盘调查数据的证据

本文利用2009年7月25日国土资源部对外正式公布的全国30个省87个城市536个楼盘调查数据,对我国地价对房价影响程度的研究表明：从全国来看地价每上涨1％,将导致房价上涨0．355％。同时这种地价弹性还存在着十分明显的区域差异,这种差异不仅体现在东部与中西部之间的区间差异,更体现在每个地区大城市与中小城市之间的区内差异,地价弹性从大到小依次为东部中小城市、中部大城市、西部大城市、中部中小城市,东部大城市和西部中小城市。本文认为地价对房价影响程度的区域差异主要取决于房地产市场竞争的激烈程度以及由此导致的土地囤积不同。